Clearing Some Things Up

In Dar es Salam covered in sweat and mosquitos, but steps from the beach so it's cool. More on that and my 52 hour bus ride to get here later.

Want to attempt to clear-up my Reflections On Zimbabwe post, which didn't come out like I wanted it to. Well, I think it started right, as I hint at how confused I was about everything, but it didn't really end that way. Basically, I wanted to say that the place is a chaotic mess and you feel further away from the truth about what's going on and what to do about it when you're inside the chaos. The only things I am sure of are that 1. Zimbabwe will be better off in the long-run thanks to land redistribution 2. The MDC is not offering viable leadership to a country so desperately in need of it. Below is an email exchange between my father and I that will shed more light. The old man first:

The press still points to widespread food shortages particularly in the
rural areas. CARE says there isn't food in the rural areas, and the lack of fuel makes it impossible to move available food from the urban areas. Face it the country doesn't have hard currency to buy seed,fertilizer, oil, etc. So why do things look good to you? The role of the dictator is to deflect the opposition by creating "the bad guys." Dictator rule #2 is to make the populated centers happy by providing as
much material stuff as possible so the discontented will be quiet. Remember the rural people are going to follow him anyway...the opposition is centered in the urban areas. Dictator economic rule #1 is to keep inflating the currency so everyone feels richer, more money moves, and only the rich who try to buy dollars to protect their money suffer. Think how do I get enough currency in Zim to pay tuition for my kid who is going to SU. I see a pattern similar to every Latin dictator in the last 60 years. Middle Eastern dictators have survived because they can spread oil dollars which they control. Though not a dictator look at what Chavez is capable of doing in Venezuela...control the society and spread the petro money as appropriate. On the surface, things are probably not as good as they appear to you. This is a
controlled and manipulated political society. You see exactly the image that the government is trying to sell the population. They are succeeding. Historically, the currency becomes the issue that finally brings down the government. No one will invest hard currency under these conditions. So all you are doing is printing more money to keep everyone happy. Inflating the currency is a due bill which works its
way down from the top of the society. As more people have to face this due bill you bring the political opposition into the streets. We would like to think people are in the streets to bring democracy to the land; no, it was the money.

Stat I just found. USAID says Zim will need 1.4 million tons of maize this year which will cost $350 million US. Only a couple of oil wells will help this inflated currency.

And me:

Ok, Re-reading that blog post, it's really poor. I looked at all the same 'hunger stats' you did, and mentioned them to people (as you assume, middle-upper-class-urban. Honestly, among the lower classes I talked to, the language barrier was too great and I couldn't get that far - should have been a disclaimer in the blog post) who basically question their validity or say that it's because of sanctions or say that it will be better than expected this year because of all the
rain. The place is surreal because no one believes anything.

I suspect you're right about food/money distribution and its intent to please the influencial minority. Couple things: opposition is centered in the urban areas, but also in the Ndebele (minority ethnic group) areas (both urban and rural). Harare (mostly Shona) is an opposition stronghold, but I see a lot of efforts to please these folks now. Land isn't just going to military cronies, it's also going to the urban middle-class (perhaps cronies too). There are also rumours that food is being diverted from Ndebele regions (zim. operates on regionally centralized graineries), though not necessarily at Mugabe's directive, there are so many middle-men and such a huge black market that economic pressures are incentivising cons to divert grain. This all speaks to your point, but I guess what surprised me is that all this didn't come out to the work of a dictator.

Mugabe seems like such a reactionary and pawn to me now. The war vets were a powerful force in the late 90s, and he pacified them as much as he could. It wasn't until Britain got involved that he then said 'hey, I though you stopped telling me what to do along time ago.' Hence the vitriolic, diplomatic nightmare we have now. As things stand now, he's making a lot of efforts to please opposition constituents like the
working class through (at least rhetorical) commitments to developing manufacturing sector and the landed elite through tourism. I'm not
saying there's no case to bring this guy up on crimes against humanity
though.

My main point, which I don't think came across clearly enough in the blog, is that only ZANU-PF can bring Zim. through this time. Note: not Mugabe. My reasoning for getting Mugabe out is probably different than that of most though: not because he might be a dictator, because he's a liability. Get someone in there who can inspire investment, without which, like you say, will spell the end.

Those constituents who Mugabe has already embraced completely distrust MDC. And the malcontent, politically nonplussed lower-middle class seemed to have little faith in them, but do want leadership change in ZANU-PF. Furthermore, many see the MDC as being co-opted by whites and/or certain Ndebele factions who don't share their interests. The biggest threat to Zimbabwe is the lack of leadership.

People are concerned about the lack of fertilizer and seed. I hope that there are enough clear heads in ZANU-PF to prevent people from starving regardless of their political affiliation. And with a new head on this beast, I hope the world will stop seeing Zim. as a beast and will see all this potential. So many in the west who complain of 'donor fatigue' (hard work, right?) are now turning to a boot-strap
prescription for Africa. Well, Zimbabwe may be what they get.

If the recovery doesn't happen soon, the currency will bring them down. On the bus through Zambia and Tanzania, Zimbabweans and non were
constantly discussing Zim currency. If that doesn't change, the Reserve Bank minister should be brought up on charges too.

No oil wells to help Zim though (?)....but they are starting some mining projects in the south. Also, I'm not sure what money Mugabe is spreading to urbanites. If anything, I see these people getting by (some thriving) on their own ingenuity and spirit. This is also what I see getting Zim. through this time, if it gets can be supplemented by some inspirational leadership. Usually that equation should be
reversed, but that's the best you can hope for at this oint.